Bitcoin has entered a deep value zone, but analysts warn BTC could still fall to $53K. Glassnode highlights long-term holder selling, ETF outflows, and cautious market sentiment.
Bitcoin has entered what analysts describe as a deep value zone, offering long-term investors a potential buying opportunity. However, on-chain data suggests the world’s largest cryptocurrency could still decline to around $53,000 before a confirmed market recovery begins.
According to blockchain analytics platform Glassnode, Bitcoin recently rebounded from $57,800 to nearly $63,000, but it remains below two major on-chain valuation levels. This indicates that the market is still under pressure despite the recent recovery.
Bitcoin Still Trading Below Key Levels
Glassnode reports that Bitcoin has spent nearly five months trading below both its True Market Mean ($76,600) and the Short-Term Holder Cost Basis ($72,200). Historically, such long discount periods have often marked the later stages of bear markets, when long-term investors quietly accumulate Bitcoin at lower prices.
Despite these encouraging signals, analysts believe a final drop toward Bitcoin’s Realized Price near $53,000 cannot be ruled out.
Long-Term Holders Continue Selling
One of the biggest reasons behind Bitcoin’s weak price action is continued selling by long-term holders.
Data shows that investors who purchased Bitcoin near the previous market peak are now realizing losses after holding through months of declining prices. Their selling pressure has increased significantly since February, making them the largest contributors to the current market downturn.
Glassnode noted that realized losses among long-term holders recently climbed to nearly $280 million per day, the highest level since late 2022.
Bitcoin ETF Demand Remains Weak
Institutional demand also remains soft.
US spot Bitcoin ETFs have continued to experience net outflows since mid-May. Although daily withdrawals have slowed compared to earlier months, institutions are still reducing their exposure to Bitcoin.
Trading volume across Bitcoin ETFs has also dropped sharply and remains well below last year’s highs, indicating that large investors are still cautious.
Options Market Signals Caution
Bitcoin derivatives markets present a mixed picture.
While some traders have started rebuilding long positions, options data shows investors are still paying higher premiums for downside protection. This defensive positioning suggests that many market participants expect further volatility before a sustained recovery begins.
Bitcoin is also trading below the options market’s estimated max pain level of $66,000, a price where option contracts tend to expire with the greatest losses for buyers.